Determining Model to find the appropriate locations for Coastal Transit Oriented Development (TOD), facing the sporadic reclamation growth Implementation: Coastal city of Makassar
AnantoYudono - ArifuddinAkil -Roslida Ibrahim - Andi Bachtiar Arief -M.Yahya Sirajuddin -Widian FitrawulanDarwis
Fakultas Teknik Universitas Hasanuddin
The growth of population and economy of city are triggering an increase of both passengers and goods travel volume within the city. The development of city infrastructure and socioeconomic facilities pushes the city economic growth itself (Pu Hao et.al, 2010). In addition, the trip distance is also getting longer, due to the trend of Urban Built up Area (UBuA) growth, which spread horizontally. The spread growth of UBuA also causes the spread of transit generators, such as offices, shopping-malls, market places, residential, schools, campuses, factories etc. Some coastal cities have small islands, which their communities also depend on city services such as health, higher education, market, field works, entertainment, etc. The increasing demand of urban space implicates to UbuA expansion. Recently, the development of UBuA by reclamation in shallow coastal city is growing fast, which more pro to commercial purposes than pro to the poor needs, especially the people who live at small islands surrounding the city mainland. On the other hand, even though the coastal reclamation construction area will make land more jutting into the sea, but the socioeconomic interrelationship between small islands community with the city main land community is decreasing. Unwise reclamation causes the small island communities difficult to access the city public facilities, which mainly located at the mainland of the city. Unappropriate of city public transportation on service area, trip route, schedule, safety and comfortable push people using their private vehicles (Rober Cervero, Kockelman, & Kara, 1997), (Cervero, 2007), (Shirshir Mathur & Ferrell., 2012), and (Cervero & Guerra, 2013). On the other side, the character of private vehicles such as cars and motor bikes, which free on time, route, and the ability for making a trip door to door, causes using the private vehicles much more attractive than using public transportation. The easiness buying motor bike and car, and the people economy enhancement cause the number of vehicles, especially private cars and motor bikes increase very fast. It has proven that the cities which solve the vehicles increasing by focus on increasing road capacity have failed, and the cities are growing more unlivable. Most of destroy the quality of city livability is the result from trying to make more room for cars (Enrique Penalosa, www.azquotes.com, download July 9th 2016). Road capacity never enough to accommodate the growth of private vehicles numbers, if city fail develop the attractive mass public transportation. This condition causes traffic jamp and increasing of traffic accidents. Urban land use and transportation system are growing unintegrated. City more serves vehicles than serves the citizen itself. Daily people trips become more redundant on origin destination distance, time, energy, cost, and unnecessary traffic pollution product. Some cities have successful to eliminate those trip redundant by develop city more compact.
The development of multi functions centers, such as transit center, housing, shopping facilities, education and health facilities, public services, and community recreation facilities eliminate the trip redundant effectively, especially transport energy consumption (Michael Breheny, 1994). The awareness on the effectiveness of integrated city planning on land use and transportation system, humanism and ecologic, produced the brilliant idea of transit oriented development (TOD). TOD is an urban planning and design strategy, which makes city more efficient, more humanism and more ecologic on citizen daily trips by development of mixed use zone surrounding the transit place for public transportation, such as railway station, bus stop, quay etc., (Bruce, 2012). Urban economic growth which pushes citizen daily trips is the opportunity for implementation of TOD at the public transportation transits which have or easy to develop mixed use zone, compact, walkable, and focus using public transportation mode (Hayati Sari Hasibuan et al., 2014). In order to develop mass public transportation, and to maximize serving the pedestrians and bicyclers as the main principles of TOD, it necessary develop mixed use zone of residential, working places, and daily shopping facilities (Cervero & Guerra, 2013).
Expert system has been widely used for identification of the problem roots or support the decision making of some alternatives, such as in medical science, agriculture science, engineering, city planning etc. Since 1998 Asian urban research group, consisting researches among some universities in Japan, South Korea and Indonesia have been develop and applied expert system in their research (Hagishima S., 1998). Generally, land use or the use of small part of urban area, transportation system, and citizen trip are no relation with the administration district border, and therefore land cover, infrastructure and urbanfacilities and other urban matters were considered as the attributes of each grid. Indeed, TOD effectives to solve the inefficient of trips, which reduces the trip distance, promotes mass public transportation,butthe question is “How determine the potential location for urban coastal TOD?”. This study aims to innovate the determining model of potential location for urban coastal TOD, based on GIS using expert system.
Methods is described as modeling of determining potential location for development of TOD. People trips are not depended on the administrative borders of a part ofthe city area but they are depended on the position of city facilities that provides goods or services to meet their needs. Therefore, the determining model of potential location for TOD was based on a grid map. Based on enjoyable walkplace of TOD, and the surrounding neighborhood grids will be public facilities for fulfill the people needs, and housing. The model consists of several steps:
Step 1. Based on the principles of TOD that collected based on the theories and findings of previous researches, the first step begins with determining the support variables and the resistor variables for the development of TOD.
Step 2. While arranging determinant variables, the base map was converted into a grid map with grids size were 500 x 500 m or 250x250 m, which is considered a comfortable walking distance. Step 3. Inputting variables to became attributes in each grid.
Step 4. Build an expert system that consists of several rules to redirect computer to scan the grid map in identifying the potential grids for TOD development.
Step 5. Develop the scanning program using Fortran 90, based on the rules in expert system model. Scoring of the grids was like scanning of grid map in order to identify the rank of potential grids for development of TOD. Mathematically based on the attributes of each grid in accordance with the principles of TOD, the score of each grid is determined.
Step 6. Using Quick Basic language, computer programming has mapped all of the grids from the lowest to the highest score with different colors. Finally, the results of the grid mapping regarding the appropriateness of the grids for the development of TOD could be checked by the original map and field observation check.
The finding of this study is the model to find the appropriate locations for Coastal TOD. Based on variable characters as grid attributes, the model will identify hierarchically, start from the grid which impossible to be TOD, grid which needs high cost or high technology for the development of TOD, and ends the identification of the most appropriate grids for TOD. The result of alternative location was ready to be selected by city government, city parliaments and by private companies. Determinant variables for determining the potential locations for TOD include: vacant land along the potential path traversed by the mass public transport such as railway stations, along arterial and collector roads; low building density areas; high accessibility on foot or riding nonmotorized vehicles to housing; high accessibility to traffic generators such as shopping malls, campuses, offices, schools, and facilities of social, culture and economy activities.
Determinant variables for determining locations may not be developed for TOD include: high risk to natural disasters such as tsunami, earthquake, flood, and landslide areas. Determinant variable for determine appropriate locations for TOD but high cost include: deep coastal area; extreme steep (>30%), military zone (headquarters of army, navy or air force, ammunition storage area, and military training area); police zone (headquarter, police academic campus, military training area); Polluting or noisy industrial area (dust, noisy, bed smell); city special public service area (solid waste disposal processing center, wastewater treatment plant, city public cemetery).
Based on each criteria and its certainty factor, or the percentage of land cover and or the existence of urban infrastructure that supports or inhibits the possibility of the development of TOD, then each grid value was determined. Mathematically, based on attribute values of each grid, one by one were integrated analyzed using Fortran 90 computer language.
Furthermore, based on the score of grids were transformed on grid map using Quick Basic computer language. The rank of potential grids for TOD shown on grid map by different colors. The application of grid cell based expert system needs attributes as variables which were grouped as two categories, restriction variables and support variables for TOD location determination.
Rule 1 If grid has a high risk on natural disaster then the grid determined as dangerous area. These grids must be TOD impossible area.
Rules 2~7 are TOD development restraint area. Rule 2 is deep coastal area, which too expensive for reclamation, and good for harbor development. Rule 3 is an extreme slope area (> 30%) which is difficult to develop walkable zone. Rule 4 is military zone such as head quarter, navy, air force, ammunition storage, and military training area. Rule 5 is Police zone such as head quarter, police academy campus, weapon firing exercise area. Rule 6 Polluting or noisy industry, such as stone chipping industry and fish or meat processing industry. Rule 7 City special public service engineering area such as city electrical power plant, city disposal processing area, and city waste water treatment plant.
Rules 8~10 are appropriate location for TOD. Rule 8 is high accessibility area for mass public transportation, such as along arterial road, along collector road, and along navigable river. Rule 9 is the low building density, which easy to develop TOD. Rule 10 short distance area to traffic generators, such as shopping center, market, general campus for military or police academies, and office buildings.
Implementation of the Model in Makassar City
The area of Makassar city is 175.77 km2, and it had a population of around 1.6 million in 2016. As the capital city of South Sulawesi province and the largest city in the eastern region of Indonesia, which is geographically located in the center, as well as the presence of an international airport and international harbor, so the city became a center of industry and trading activities. As capitol of South Sulawesi province, Makassar city has not attractive public transport services, population growth,people economic growth, and the ease of owning and operating private motor vehicles causing a growing number of private cars and motorcycles rapidly, which was not proportionate to the city length road, Table 1 shows vehicle and road growth 2011-2015, and Table 2 shows population projection period 2010~2035. The growth ratio of Makassar city population is higher than that of South Sulawesi province and that of Indonesia. The growth of vehicles number motor bikes and cars were higher than that of Makassar city population. Growth ratio of road length and toll way were very low, and therefore the congestion and the number of traffic accidents in the city of Makassar are increasing. On the other hand, spreading growth of Makassar city without good integration of land use and transport system, causing citizen daily trips inefficient.
Mobility of people and goods in the sprawl growth city is wasteful in the distance, time, energy and travel costs, as well as producing too many motor vehicle exhaust. Therefore, avoid sprawl city is a must. Development of a compact city with an integrated mass public transport system became the basis TOD development. TOD principles would support the elimination of the volume of private vehicles, and the elimination of wastefulness distance, energy, time and travel expenses, as well as the elimination of vehicle exhaust products.
Makassar has 10 inhabited small islands, and there are also several inhabited small islands of surrounding regencies, which part of communities are the commuters. This study area included 7 small islands which the distance to Makassar shoreline less than 30 km, ± 90 minutes by speed boat from Makassar shore line, that communities often go to Makassar for fulfill their needs. There were four islands which the area > 40ha, and the population 1500- 2600 people. Except Laelae island which very close to Makassar city, ten minutes by boat, three other islands were provided by some social facilities such as elementary school, junior high school, senior high school, medical clinic, shop and sub district government office. For buying rice, vegetable, fruit, gasoline, higher education, and hospital services the island communities have to go to Makassar city.
For application of the determining model of potential location for TOD to the whole Makassar city data was transferred as attributes to 500 x 500m grids, and to the potential location for coastal TOD was transferred as attributes to 250 x 250m grids. First step model was applied to the whole Makassar city based on 764 grids of 500mx 500m. There were identified two very appropriate locations for TOD, and 26 appropriate locations along arterial roads.
Second step model was applied focus to the potential city coastal areas as appropriate locations for TOD especially serves the commuters of some small islands surrounding Makassar city coastal area, based on 909 grids of 250m x 250m
Result and Discussions
The model is effectively used to determine the potential location for TOD. Application models for the city of Makassar explained that the smaller size of grid will be more accurate in filling the determinant variables as attributes in each grid. The size of the grid needs to be adapted regarding the different map scales, such as for the city master plan, and for detailed plan.
I really appreciate to Hasanuddin University, which has founded this research, also appreciate to my colleagues, students and assistant of Urban Planning and DesignLaboratory, who fully supported this research.
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